Sea-Intelligence sees container shipping lines as 'bullish' for the peak season

The container shipping market has been experiencing a peak since early May with high freight rates that have continued for nearly three months. Looking at the vacancy levels and capacity deployment plans that carriers have planned for the remaining weeks of Q3 can provide us with a snapshot of carriers’ confidence in the upcoming peak season in 2024.

The following chart from Sea-Intelligence illustrates the percentage of scheduled vacancies for the remainder of the peak season (weeks 29-39) for two major East/West trades: Asia-West Coast North America and Asia-North Europe.

Source: Sea-Intelligence.com, Sunday Spotlight, issue 674

For the Asia-West Coast North America trade, carriers have planned to keep 3.9% of their total capacity vacant. This is roughly in line with the pre-pandemic average and 2020 levels, although significantly lower than during the pandemic years, when skips were necessary due to port congestion.

Capacity growth for the same week in 2024 is forecast to be 24.6% higher than in 2023 and 10.2% higher than in 2020, which was the highest deployed capacity year in TEU terms.

“Given this strong capacity growth and the relatively low blank sailings level, it suggests that the carriers are bullish for the peak season on this trade lane,” commented Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence.

On the Asia-North Europe trade, unused capacity is expected to be 5.9% over the next 11 weeks, just above 2020 and the pre-pandemic average, although the difference from 2020 is not as large.

There is no year-on-year growth in deployed capacity in 2024. However, in 2023, the annual capacity growth on the trade is 13.1%, which is not only high compared to historical benchmarks but also too high for the level of demand on the trade (as evidenced by falling freight rates).

Murphy pointed out, “The fact that carriers are willing to maintain that level of elevated capacity on Asia-North Europe in 2024, coupled with the relatively low level of blank sailings, indicates the carriers have a confident strong outlook for the peak season on Asia-North Europe.”

Source: Phaata.com (via Sea-Intelligence)

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