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Global trade is on track to hit a record $33 trillion in 2024, according to the latest data from UNCTAD, the United Nations trade agency.

This 3.3% annual growth is largely driven by a 7% increase in services trade, which added $500 billion to the total. Meanwhile, merchandise trade is expected to grow at a slower pace of 2% this year, still below its 2022 peak.

Despite this growth, UNCTAD warned that 2025 could face significant uncertainty due to trade war risks and ongoing geopolitical challenges.
“The 2025 trade outlook is clouded by potential US policy shifts, including broader tariffs that could disrupt global value chains and impact key trading partners,” UNCTAD said in a statement.

The countries most likely to be affected by changes in US trade policy are those with large trade surpluses with the US and high tariff barriers. Based on 2023 merchandise trade figures, UNCTAD said these countries include China (surplus of about $280 billion), India ($45 billion), the European Union ($205 billion), and Vietnam ($105 billion).

 

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